Prevent, Mitigate, Prepare, Respond, Recover
Why Texas Hill Country’s Flood Should Concern Us All
“Some places have the mountains but not the rain, or the strong rain but not the mountains – but the Guadalupe has both. That combination of events is what makes it so dangerous.”
-- Phil Bedient, the director of Rice University’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education, & Evacuation from Disasters Center
Flooding of the Guadalupe River near Kerrville, Texas, in 2025
The Texas Hill Country’s Guadalupe River has a long history of deadly floods. This area is famously called “Flash Flood Alley”. Major floods swept the river in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991, 1997, and 1998. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, there has not been a year since 1996 without a serious flood along the Guadalupe, resulting in about 50 deaths and over 4400 injuries. But the worst flood yet occurred on Independence Day of 2025.
A catastrophic flood took place in the Texas Hill Country, particularly in Kerr County in Central Texas. During the flooding, water levels along the Guadalupe River rose quickly, and up to 20 inches of rain fell in a short time. The river rose about 26 feet in 45 minutes. In the span of a few hours, the equivalent of four months' worth of rain fell across the Texas Hill Country region. As a result, at least 1301 fatalities have been confirmed, with more than 160 reported missing (as of July 14, 2025).
Would a more effective warning or preparation have altered the outcome?
The Five Steps of Disaster Preparedness for Floods
Prevention: Measures taken to avert flooding before it occurs. This may involve prohibiting new homes, camps, or RV parks in a historic floodway, reforesting hillsides to enhance rain absorption, and upgrading drainage systems.
Mitigation: Initiatives or regulations aimed at minimizing the effects of flooding. This may include purchasing homes in flood-prone areas, raising structures, and constructing dams or levees.
Preparedness: Planning and training before a flood hits. This may encompass public education, the installation of flood gauges, signage on roads susceptible to flooding, river sirens, nighttime drills, NOAA weather radios equipped with battery backups, text alerts, evacuation plans and drills, and stocking emergency supplies.
Response: The immediate actions during and right after the flood. This may include search and rescue teams, emergency medical care, evacuations, and opening shelters.
Recovery: Rebuilding after the waters recede. This may involve restoring power and roads, cleanup of debris and mold, restoring homes, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) grants, rebuilding flood-resistant homes, and supporting physical and mental health needs.
The Price Tag—and the Discount for Acting Early
Preparing costs money and effort, but it’s cheaper than paying for a disaster afterward. Research shows that an early investment goes a long way. FEMA reports that every $1 spent on federal hazard mitigation grants saves about $6 in later disaster costs. Specifically for floods, projects downstream paid for themselves many times over. In other words, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
The Future
This isn’t just about rural Texas. Climate change is increasingly manifesting through extreme weather events, including devastating floods, which are becoming more frequent and severe. The NOAA warns of rapid intensification of storms, which compresses the time available for emergency measures and evacuation. These disasters, which result in significant loss of life and property, highlight the inadequacies in disaster preparedness and response.
The outcomes can impact public safety and local economies, encompassing sectors such as tourism and agriculture. People can be harmed or killed, and hospitals and highways may be closed. Forced evacuations and disruptions to power and water supplies can last for weeks. Local government leaders and first responders must protect communities. Decision-makers should provide sufficient funding for all five stages of disaster preparedness.
Additionally, we can advocate for the establishment of a National Disaster Safety Board (NDSB). After a tragedy, we often ask what went wrong and how to fix it. Currently, no federal agency is charged with dissecting floods like engineers dissect plane crashes. In 2020, Senators and agencies proposed a National Disaster Safety Board, modeled on the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). The NDSB would study the underlying causes of disaster-related fatalities and property damage nationwide and issue recommendations to prevent future harm.
Since its creation in 1967, NTSB safety recommendations have prevented numerous accidents and saved countless lives. The NDSB could do the same for disasters. The bill to create this agency was reintroduced in the House and the Senate in 2023, but it still has not been enacted.
The Guadalupe’s story is a warning and a lesson. This type of flood was not a one-off. More will happen. But they can be less deadly. The only question is whether we repeat the past or learn from it.