“It was getting hotter.” This is the opening line of the climate fiction novel, “The Ministry for the Future” by acclaimed science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson. The story follows Frank, an American aid worker, as he witnesses the horrifying effects of a devastating heatwave in Lucknow, India. He wakes up to the cries of people on the city’s rooftops who have discovered their loved ones dead after sleeping outside to escape the heat. The situation worsens when the electricity goes out. Frank brings people to a clinic with an air conditioning unit but even there people continue to die. The desperation increases when armed men steal the clinic's generator and air conditioning unit. The situation reaches a breaking point as the heat-stressed residents, including Frank, go to the town's lake, seeking relief that never comes. People succumb to the heat throughout the night with Frank as the sole survivor. Within two weeks, twenty million people die.
Can this future happen? It is starting. We are observing heat days now.
Heat Days
The last Friday of May (May 31 this year) is National Heat Awareness Day. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the National Weather Service use the day to warn workers, employers, and the public about heat's health risks to reduce heat-related illnesses and deaths. Every June 2, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre promotes Heat Action Day to warn about excessive heat risks and how to keep safe.
Heatwaves
Heatwaves have cost thousands of lives. For example, during the heat wave of 2003, Europe saw its warmest summer since the year 1540. France was hit particularly hard and over 70,000 people died.
In 2023, the United States set a record with over 2300 heat-related deaths. This estimate was obtained by counting the death certificates that noted the impact of extreme heat. With this May already breaking heat records, 2024 could be even deadlier. However, experts warned that counting heat mortality based on death certificates leads to underestimates. They pointed to “excess death” studies for a more realistic count. According to their methods, about 11,000 heat deaths likely occurred in 2023 in the U.S. —about five times the number reported on death certificates. Deaths are also up because of better reporting, because Americans are getting older and more vulnerable to heat, and the population is slowly shifting to cities, which are more exposed to heat.
Houston
On May 16, a 100-mph derecho, a widespread long-lasting windstorm, hit Houston, a city of over two million people. The storm caused extensive damage, including power outages and no air conditioning. About 1 million electrical customers lost power in southeastern Texas that evening with about 800,000 in Houston alone. Fortunately, the temperature in Houston was in the low to mid-80s. Eight deaths resulted but not from heat exposure. If the storm had arrived later in the week, with a heat index as high as 115, it could have been a different story. Extreme heat and power failures could have led to many deaths. This derecho should serve as a warning of what can happen.
India
Recently, India has seen record temperatures resulting in over 50 deaths from a heatwave. The heat has been relentless since arriving early this year, with temperatures exceeding 122 degrees Fahrenheit in some locations. On May 29, New Delhi had its highest temperature ever recorded, 49.1 degrees Celsius (120.38 degrees Fahrenheit).
New Records
Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service, reported that each month over the last year has been at least 1.5 degrees warmer than before industrialization when humanity did not use fossil fuels on a mass scale. The recent 12-month global average was 1.63 degrees above pre-industrial levels. From June 2023 to May 2024, every month was the hottest on record. This one-year heat streak is remarkable but not unexpected given the steady march of climate change.
Climate Change Awareness
A recent Gallup poll of American adults’ views on the environment was conducted March 1-20, 2024. It found that 62% of Americans were concerned about climate change and 68% knew that 2023 was the Earth’s warmest year on record. However, when asked to rank 14 problems facing the country, the environment was ranked 12th.
Extreme Heat Where You Live
There is a wealth of information available to the public on how to deal with extreme heat. The U.S. government has a website that discusses how to prepare for extreme heat, how to stay safe, and how to recognize heat-related illnesses. There is also a website from the National Weather Service where you can see what the heat risk will be like over the next 24 hours where you live. It ranges from none to minor to major to extreme.
The Future
Since we started with a quote from an acclaimed science fiction author, let’s conclude with one from another. Ray Bradbury was once asked whether he expected the future to be like the one he described in “Fahrenheit 451,” a dystopian novel about a world in which firemen burn forbidden books. He replied, “I don’t try to predict the future. All I want to do is prevent it.”
We have within us the power to prevent the most extreme effects of climate change. It’s never too late. What will it take now that we are becoming more aware of the impending threat? More people will have to change because they know and understand what is happening. We have started to make changes. But we must do much more to protect our health and the planet’s health. We must prevent a future like the one described in “The Ministry for the Future”.